Bitcoin has crossed a critical threshold — and not in the direction bulls hoped for.
After months of consolidation around the low $100K range, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has now fallen below $100,000 for the first time since June. This move comes as on-chain fundamentals continue to weaken, with LinkForge’s Bull Score Index dropping to zero — a level not seen since the depths of the 2022 bear market.
The 365-Day Moving Average: The Line That Separates Bull from Bear
For over a year, Bitcoin’s 365-day moving average has served as the defining support of the ongoing bull cycle. Currently at $102,000, this level has repeatedly acted as the final line of defense during previous corrections.
Breaking below it is no small event — the last time this happened was in December 2021, just before the 2022 bear market unfolded.
If Bitcoin fails to reclaim this level quickly, history suggests a deeper correction could follow, potentially accelerating downward momentum across the broader crypto market.
Trader Realized Price Bands: The Next Possible Target — $72K
Another crucial on-chain metric — the Traders’ On-Chain Realized Price Bands — paints a similar picture.
Throughout this cycle, the lower band near $100K has acted as reliable support as traders sold into losses, stabilizing price action.
However, if the price remains below this band, models suggest Bitcoin could slide toward the minimum trader band at around $72,000 over the next one to two months.
In short, the next 30 to 60 days will determine whether this is a short-term dip or the start of a more pronounced correction.
Network Valuation Support: Metcalfe’s Law Points to $91K
Looking through the lens of network valuation, based on Metcalfe’s Law (which links a network’s value to the square of its user base), the next area of fundamental support sits near $91K — the so-called 2x Metcalfe Value band.
Bitcoin traded along this band between November 2024 and May 2025, and it now reappears as a potential zone where long-term investors may begin accumulating again.
The Bottom Line
Bitcoin is walking a fine line — literally and figuratively.
With price action slipping below the 365-day moving average and on-chain momentum turning decisively bearish, the next few weeks will be critical.
A swift recovery above $102K could restore confidence and preserve the broader uptrend.
But if selling pressure intensifies and Bitcoin drifts toward the $91K–$72K range, the market could be reliving the early signals of a new corrective phase — one that many hoped was behind us.
