Summary
Bitcoin’s short-term fundamentals and price momentum have softened, but liquidity conditions and large investor accumulation still offer underlying support. A decisive move above the Traders’ Realized Price of $115K would confirm renewed strength and could signal the continuation of the broader uptrend.
Massive Deleveraging Event.
The crypto market just saw its largest deleveraging event to date, erasing $21 billion in open interest across Bitcoin and Ethereum. The sharp liquidation was triggered by rising U.S.–China trade tensions and resulted in a 7% drop in Bitcoin and 12% in Ethereum.
Deteriorating Fundamentals.
Bitcoin’s Bull Score Index has plunged from 80 to 20, indicating a clear shift toward bearish market conditions. The Apparent Demand metric shows a 30-day contraction of 111,000 BTC — the steepest since April — while CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has entered the BEAR phase, confirming weakening momentum.
Critical Resistance for Recovery.
The Traders’ On-Chain Realized Price, currently around $115K, sits just above current spot levels. Reclaiming and holding this threshold would be key for restoring short-term bullish momentum.
Despite these headwinds, there are encouraging signs. Stablecoin liquidity is expanding rapidly, with USDT market cap up by $14.9 billion in the past 60 days — the fastest pace since January. This surge injects new liquidity into the crypto system, potentially supporting future recovery.
At the same time, whales (large Bitcoin holders) have resumed accumulation. As of October 8, the one-year change in whale balances moved back above its one-year average — historically a bullish signal for the market.
On-Chain & Market Insights
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Historic Deleveraging Event
On Friday, the crypto market experienced its most severe deleveraging ever. Combined open interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetual futures fell from a record $78B on October 6 to $57B — a 27% decline (or $21B in liquidations). Nearly $19.7B was wiped out on October 10 alone, marking the largest single-day drop on record.
The selloff followed President Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1, which — despite later clarification — sparked major volatility. Bitcoin and Ethereum dropped 7% and 12%, respectively. -
Bitcoin Market Turns Bearish
Bitcoin’s Bull Score Index now reflects strong bearish sentiment, dropping from 80 on October 6 to just 20 today. The signal first flipped to bearish on October 8, when BTC traded around $119,000. -
Declining Spot Demand and Weak Momentum
Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand continues to contract at a 30-day rate of 111K BTC, the sharpest drop since April. The selloff also pushed CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator into the BEAR phase, highlighting ongoing downward pressure. -
Key Level to Watch: $115K
The Traders’ On-Chain Realized Price — roughly $115K — represents the average cost basis for active traders. A sustained breakout above this level would suggest renewed confidence and could mark a shift back toward short-term bullish conditions. -
Stablecoin Liquidity Expands Rapidly
Over the past two months, USDT’s market cap has grown by $14.9B, its fastest expansion since early January. Historically, such growth in stablecoin supply has preceded periods of price stabilization and recovery in digital assets. -
Whales Resume Accumulation
Large Bitcoin holders are once again adding to their positions. The 1-year change in whale balances moved above its 1-year moving average on October 8, signaling renewed accumulation. Historically, this pattern has aligned with the early stages of bull markets.
